It looks like Greece is going to default on their loan repayments after the latest announcements out of Europe. Creditors have decided not to extend a lifeline to the struggling country, and the most likely result is a default. Parliament has already approved a bailout that will help Greece cope with this, and it sets them on a sure trajectory to exit the commonly shared currency of the Eurozone: the euro. It also increases the chances of them leaving the Eurozone altogether.
If recent history is any indicator of what will happen, worldwide markets will struggle for the next few weeks, especially the United States. However, it might drag the U.S. stock markets down, but it will boost the U.S. dollar up, creating an opportunity for traders in different areas, even as another disappears temporarily. The euro is the currency that will be hardest hit, and because the U.S. dollar is the most heavily traded currency against it, the dollar will be the one that most likely benefits. Short term traders need to be aware of this, and it’s not something that is likely to be deduced just by looking at charts and graphs. Yes, these are helpful tools for day trading, but in the end, big events like this have the capability of trumping them. Paying attention to the news and fundamental data is the best policy if you want your trading to be as effective as possible.
This will all become much more solidified on June 30th, when Greece has a payment due to the IMF. Until then, expect the euro to keep moving downward, but on a slower path. It creates an interesting dilemma for traders because if Greece does default, entering a position now seems like it should be a much better choice than entering the moment after the default is announced. Even at that latter point, some of the profits will be gone as bigger institutional traders are going to get the jump on you thanks to better information and faster equipment. By entering into your trades now, and then waiting a few days, it would seem like you could squeeze a few extra pips in the right direction.
However, because most Forex brokers that cater to smaller traders charge additional fees for overnight trades, the fact is that there’s a good chance that the profits you do make might be negated by this. Also, you need to take into account that the markets will not move 100% in the direction that you want it to, and the uncertainty could also be an additional risk factor that you do not want to take on. A safer method is needed in the uncertain moments before this does happen, just to alleviate your exposure.
Binary options present another method that might help, especially for smaller traders. Because they are direction based, you can still see profits even if the assets you are trading (in this case, the EUR/USD) do not move as much as you expected them to. A trade that moves 1 pip in your direction rewards you with a full profit amount of 72% or so, while a 1 pip trade in the Forex market would be considered a losing one as you didn’t overcome the spread.
While you are waiting for Greece to make the next move, you don’t need to let your trading suffer. If you have a firm idea of what is going to happen, acting now, but with alternative forms of trading, will give you a chance to earn a few extra bucks out of this news.